Evaluation of the Asteroid Impact Hazard, 15-9130
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Investigator
Clark
R. Chapman
Co-Investigators
Walter F. Huebner
Daniel D. Durda
Inclusive Dates: 03/30/99 - Current
Background - The nation and the world are on the threshold of deciding what to do about what is called Planetary Defense: how do we address the rare but horrific possibility that civilization might end because of the impact of a mile-wide asteroid or comet? Currently the Institute has several leading researchers who have been engaged in this recently discovered threat, and it has much latent talent that could be brought to bear on mitigating the threat when the nation decides to proceed. During this transitional year, SwRI staff are helping to shape the decisions of federal agencies and international bodies about how to address the impact threat by engaging in several research efforts designed to advance understanding of the impact hazard, its relationship to other natural hazards, and approaches to mitigating catastrophe should a dangerous asteroid or comet be found to be heading our way. At the end of this modest project, the team expects that the Institute will be well positioned to help society address this threat in a responsible way.
Approach - While plans for telescopic searches for threatening asteroids and comets are well advanced, the research team is undertaking complementary research to identify the significance of discoveries, realistic error bars in impact or near-miss predictions, and proper methods to characterize such predictions in order for policy- and decision-makers to respond appropriately (for example, development of a useful Impact Hazard Index, analogous to the Richter Scale for earthquakes). These research activities are being conducted in the context of SwRI’s current and invited participation in activities of the International Astronomical Union Working Group on Near-Earth Objects, the June 1999 NASA/ESA/IAU IMPACT Workshop in Torino, and the Prediction Science project sponsored by the Geological Society of America and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The team is also analyzing impact rates as a function of size, refining estimates of the expected environmental and societal damage due to an impact, and comparatively evaluating the impact hazard with other natural hazards in order for the impact hazard to be placed in a proper context within the natural hazards research community. Finally, collaborating with Dr. Robert Gold of Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, the team will be developing a broad, end-to-end analysis of approaches to mitigation, to be summarized in an SwRI report that probably will form a widely read roadmap for how our society should deal with the impact threat. In this report, the team will emphasize analyses of how the physical properties of asteroids and comets may be understood to plan for possible mitigation efforts using both explosive and thruster technologies.
Accomplishments - Dr. Chapman prepared a chapter in the recently published book "Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature," Island Press, 2000. His chapter (Case Study) on the impact hazard will accompany chapters by experts on other natural hazards and issues in predictive science, including earthquakes, floods, and beach erosion. Dr. Chapman attended the Torino IMPACT conference in June 1999 and helped the International Astronomical Union develop recommendations for handling future predictions of possible impacts. He also worked with Dr. Richard Binzel (MIT) and Kelly Beatty (Sky & Telescope) to refine an impact hazard index, similar to the Richter Scale and named the Torino Scale. The scale was announced in July 1999 and published in a recent issue of Planetary and Space Science. A poster talk on the impact hazard was presented at the Asteroids/Comets/Meteors meeting held in late June 1999 at Cornell University. Work continued during late 1999 and early 2000 on other elements of impact hazard research, including participation in the November 1999 High Consequence Systems Surety Conference (Sandia National Laboratory, Albuquerque, New Mexico) and the 4th "Snowbird Conference" on Catastrophic Events in Earth History (July 2000). Work on the end-to-end analysis of planetary defense had to be deferred until late in calendar year 2000 due to schedule constraints on the part of our consultant, Dr. Gold.
