Uncertainty Modeling
& Quantification
Mechanics & Materials

Extreme events and their confidence bounds can be estimated on the basis of limited data sets.

Extreme events and their confidence bounds can be estimated on the basis of limited data sets.

Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) staff members develop and apply state-of-the-art probabilistic analysis tools to address challenging technology questions. These tools have been used successfully in complex, large-scale engineering applications across a wide variety of commercial sectors and government agencies. Many of these tools are implemented in our reliability and integrity software codes, such as the NESSUS software.

The SwRI staff has extensive experience and expertise with developing accurate and efficient probabilistic analysis techniques for predicting reliability in high-consequence engineering applications. When sufficient data are available, sophisticated and highly accurate statistical models of the inputs are developed and incorporated in the probabilistic analysis. In other cases where only sparse data are available, the staff has developed a novel method to incorporate expert opinion into the probabilistic analysis without introducing biases in the representation of the data using standard probabilistic models.

Capabilities

  • Statistical quantification of uncertainty
  • Estimation of extreme events
  • Time-series analysis
  • Random field modeling
  • Folding expert opinion into probabilistic analysis
  • Optimal decision making with incomplete information

Experience and Applications

  • Development and implementation of new probabilistic algorithms
  • Simulation of complex systems
  • Tailored probabilistic solutions for complex systems
  • Application in a wide range of sectors (government, automotive, aerospace, etc.)

Analysis Tools

  • NESSUS® software development
  • Integration of existing deterministic software in probabilistic tools
  • Development of customized routines and tools (FORTRAN, Matlab, etc.)
SwRI used statistical quantification of the time series in a dynamic analysis to estimate the probability of fracture of mission-critical components.

SwRI used statistical quantification of the time series in a dynamic analysis to estimate the probability of fracture of mission-critical components.


Expert opinion introduces epistemic (or model) uncertainty. SwRI engineers have developed a probabilistic approach to incorporate expert opinion in a reliability assessment.

Expert opinion introduces epistemic (or model) uncertainty. SwRI engineers have developed a probabilistic approach to incorporate expert opinion in a reliability assessment.

A printable version of our Uncertainty Modeling and Quantification brochure is available.

 

We welcome your inquiries. For additional information, please contact:

John McFarland, Ph.D.
Research Engineer
Materials Engineering
(210) 522-3998
jmcfarland@swri.org


Ben H. Thacker, Ph.D., P.E.
Director
Materials Engineering
(210) 522-3896
bthacker@swri.org

Related Terminology

NESSUS  •  mechanics and materials  • structural integrity  • reliability assessment  • mechanical behavior  • mechanical characterization, fatigue life characterization  • crack growth  •  corrosion fatigue  • probabilistic mechanics  • uncertainty modeling  •  bone fracture  • bone properties

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Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, is a multidisciplinary, independent, nonprofit, applied engineering and physical sciences research and development organization with 10 technical divisions.
08/10/15